The Shocking Truth about UK Gun Deaths

With current tragic news stories, there seems to have been a large number of emotive posts on the subject of gun deaths, so I though I'd represent here some number based facts on the matter.

Using the US as my baseline I will reveal some startling facts about our own country, which points at a sinister plot to deny us accurate details on what could be happening on our own doorstep.

To make the numbers easy to understand, I'm rounding to the nearest unit in all cases...

Firstly, let's look at Gun Ownership in the US versus the UK:

Guns in US = 300m
Guns in UK = 2m

(based on general figures from a number of sources)

So a basic ratio of US/UK guns = 150:1

Now, an approximate figure for annual gun deaths in the US is around the 10,000 mark (I've seen figures ranging from 9,000 up to 30,000 ... 10,000 seems a reasonable approximation).

Now, this figure is based on the current controls within the US, where certain states restrict the carrying of guns in certain areas (for example, schools, movie theatres, and so on). Therefore, with the much greater restrictions here in the UK (no public gun carrying), we need to scale that figure up by the reduced safety caused by these restrictions.

Let us again approximate. Limiting ourselves to populated areas, consider the lack of defence as proportionally twice as high with current restrictions (this might seem too low, but we need to account for the large un-populated areas).

Therefore, proportionally, we would have 20,000 gun deaths per annum.

However, this is at our restricted level of gun ownership. As has been stated, were we to have more guns (more means of self-defence) there would be fewer deaths.  Therefore, we need to scale up the deaths by the proportional lack of guns, which as given above is about 150:1.

So, taking the 20,000, multiplied by 150 yields 3,000,000 gun deaths.

Of course, we now need to account for a smaller population.

UK population = 60m
US population = 300m

With that 1/5th population we arrive at the actual figure of:

600,000
(I know  .... I was shocked too, to see this figure)

However, and this is where things take a sinister turn, official figures show around only 100 per year (even in a 'bad' year). That's a mere fraction - 1/6000th of what the baseline numbers predict it should be from our US model. So clearly we are being misled somehow, as the working out is accurate, and the base figures approximately right.

We need to speak to our government urgently and find out what is behind these misleading figures. Identify what the real numbers are, and get to the root of this mass deception. And soon.

It's either that, or the entire set of premises to my argument is false, and the people supporting them are wildly off the mark. Yet my figures are 'good' so where can the logic error be?